Tantalizing Or Teasing The Markets

Officials attending the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Washington are tantalizing the markets. While they kicked any action to deal with the euro-zone crisis down the road to the EU council in Brussels in late October and/or the G20 summit in Cannes in November, they are letting the idea float that a course of action is finally in the making. This would provide for private holders of Greek debt to take a 50% haircut for, an increase in the size and flexibility of the 440 billion-euro ($600 billion) European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and a recapitalization of European banks most exposed to sovereign debt. If this plan for what is in effect a partial Greek default comes to fruition, it will need at least that much time to overcome some significant legal and political hurdles, notably, on the latter, the role the ECB will play in strengthening the EFSF, and some grisly horse trading with the banks and other private holders of Greece’s debt. The biggest risk to the euro-area — and to the global economy — remains a disorderly sovereign default or an unexpected shock triggering bank runs in the meantime.

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Filed under Banking, Credit Crisis, IMF

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